Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.320836 0.375956 0.435924 0.505790 0.584714 0.670870 0.771789
2025-04-20 0.235946 0.305139 0.386474 0.488308 0.611498 0.754775 0.933014
2025-04-27 0.172346 0.246131 0.339751 0.465350 0.627315 0.826861 1.088724
2025-05-04 0.129688 0.204922 0.307970 0.455830 0.658395 0.921617 1.284167
2025-05-11 0.096916 0.170262 0.278941 0.445713 0.688049 1.019325 1.496682
2025-05-18 0.067143 0.132861 0.239027 0.414040 0.684400 1.073511 1.660007
2025-05-25 0.044926 0.101352 0.201380 0.379053 0.671088 1.113387 1.809862
2025-06-01 0.032049 0.082402 0.180105 0.366281 0.690207 1.203780 2.044290
2025-06-08 0.022475 0.066497 0.160369 0.352447 0.705946 1.291780 2.286403
2025-06-15 0.017165 0.057949 0.152754 0.359387 0.758633 1.445662 2.648533
2025-06-22 0.011320 0.045143 0.132519 0.337779 0.757359 1.510953 2.876659
2025-06-29 0.007658 0.036232 0.118195 0.325083 0.770877 1.603625 3.160598
2025-07-06 0.004935 0.028480 0.104389 0.311455 0.783080 1.700580 3.471434
2025-07-13 0.003467 0.024115 0.098081 0.313983 0.829536 1.867172 3.923247
2025-07-20 0.002295 0.019757 0.089956 0.310108 0.862197 2.012552 4.353180
2025-07-27 0.001579 0.016799 0.085047 0.313672 0.912815 2.200108 4.880842
2025-08-03 0.001052 0.014125 0.079827 0.315137 0.959338 2.385626 5.423308
2025-08-10 0.000584 0.010721 0.069627 0.298678 0.959572 2.475761 5.791030
2025-08-17 0.000290 0.007807 0.059242 0.277883 0.944744 2.532150 6.098166
2025-08-24 0.000162 0.006233 0.054050 0.272917 0.971184 2.683031 6.611461
2025-08-31 0.000084 0.004892 0.048877 0.266180 0.991670 2.823180 7.115520
2025-09-07 0.000053 0.004303 0.047836 0.275266 1.059760 3.081903 7.891737
2025-09-14 0.000021 0.003161 0.041656 0.260896 1.055463 3.168374 8.305768